Like many fans of the series, I was sceptical about a celebrity edition of The Traitors. I assumed (as in the show’s American version) that the players would be too wrapped up in themselves and their careers to play the game seriously.  

But how wrong I was – and episode three’s ‘big dog theory’ put forward by Joe² (Marler and Wilkinson) proves that there’s in fact a layer of complexity here that simply can’t exist in the original format. 

Spoilers for The Celebrity Traitors season 1 below 

What is the big dog theory in The Celebrity Traitors? 

Former England rugby player Joe Marler and comedian Joe Wilkinson both sat down to share their thoughts on which contestants could be Traitors. While Marler suspected brainiac Stephen Fry, Wilkinson correctly identified chat show host legend Jonathan Ross as one of those hiding in plain sight. 

As they discussed further, they began to analyse who ‘Claudia’ (although presumably the host has help from some unseen producers) would have chosen to make for the best TV possible. 

Arguably, Stephen Fry and Jonathan Ross are the two biggest names in the castle. They’ve been around in showbiz for a long time, and they both seem to have sway over other contestants for that reason, albeit through different methods.  

Ross’s chatty nature makes him appear more harmless than he is. He easily persuaded a big group of people to move outside without creating any suspicion whatsoever, so Alan could touch the poisoned lily undetected, and then go on and kill Paloma with it. Ross has (until now, at least) been able to plant seeds of doubt regarding other players without any arguments.  

Meanwhile, Fry’s intellect encourages people to think more clearly, especially at the roundtable. He hasn’t yet let emotion cloud his judgment and has helped explain the rationale of group mentality during a vote. Both these players are at the top of the ‘celeb hierarchy’, something that can’t happen in the regular show because the contestants are all strangers, meeting for the first time.  

After some discussion with Wilkinson about why Fry is more likely to be a Faithful, Joe Marler put forward the following proposal: 

“Maybe Claudia picked a war to be had between the Traitor team, led by the big dog – Jonathan – against the Faithful team, led by the Faithful big dog, of Stephen… she’s gone, ‘I wanna see which team’s gonna win now’.”

And truly, I was applauding at home – because, for once, the Faithful are right on the money.  

As Wilkinson points out, he thinks Stephen is the one capable of “breaking the code”. He’s going against the grain of previous contestants, not claiming to have a gut feeling on anyone, and always uses logic and scepticism to back up his claims. He gives people the space to fight their corner, and that makes him a huge threat to The Traitors. 

So, why haven’t the treacherous team got rid of him yet? 

How The Traitors can use the big dog theory to their advantage 

As you’ll know, Marler and Wilkinson brought forward this theory at the roundtable, with the latter concluding that Jonathan was the more likely villain hiding in plain sight. This was, however, based on his incorrect assumption that Ross would be the only one with enough of a ruthless nature to murder Paloma.  

We viewers know that it was really Alan Carr who made the final decision (and he happily sat there throughout the grilling like the cat that got the cream). Regardless, Wilkinson’s accusation encouraged others to share their own suspicions about Ross – and it nearly got him booted from the show.  

Ross just about managed to survive, with poor Tameka Empson taking the fall instead. However, the incident of promising an alliance to Niko Omilana in the car has come back to bite him. I personally think that Ross genuinely forgot he said that, as it happened before he was picked to be a Traitor. 

Regardless, he went a little too hard on the defensive, and that now means he’s on people’s radars… not that Alan Carr and Cat Burns are worried.  

The pair shared a moment after the roundtable confirming that they were prepared to stab Jonathan in the back if the Faithful turned on him – a classic Traitors play. We’ve seen ‘ringleaders’ of a group blindsided many times before, and Jonathan likely wouldn’t see it coming.  

And it looks likely that the Faithful may do just that, thanks to Ruth Codd. If Ruth stays in, she’ll no doubt continue to gun for Jonathan, just as we’ve seen Maddie do to Wilfred, and Jaz do to Paul in previous series. His name will never be out of conversation.  

There is the option for the team to murder Ruth in a risky double/triple bluff move. This could appear so obvious that it would take the heat off Jonathan… or the Faithful could see it for exactly what it is.  

If Jonathan doesn’t survive, then that’s one big dog eliminated. At that point, if I were Alan and Cat, I’d try to recruit Stephen Fry.

Why? Fry can either be a brilliant mind who can orchestrate Faithfuls to look in the other direction… or, his convincing could become suspicious, making him the perfect patsy for the other two. Even if he refuses to be recruited, owning up to it could put him in the spotlight.

Marler did not rule out Fry as a suspicious character, and as one of the most influential voices at the table, he will surely get brought up again as the number of contestants shrinks. Murdering Fry at this point, while he has no suspicions about the guilty group, would be a pointless act.  

Of course, this is all fun speculation. Jonathan may be in the clear – the Faithful can be quick to forget, after all. Regardless, the big dog theory has proven that this group of contestants are thinking two steps ahead, and it makes for killer TV. 

…As do the farts by screen legend Celia Imrie. TV moment of the year for The Celebrity Traitors right there.